Anybody should expect the downfall of an arrow shot towards the sky

Over the past few weeks many commentaries and analysis have been written about the prospects of a new state in the Horn of Africa, the post-referendum Sudan and the secession of Southern Sudan.

An analysis on IRIN website weighs the secession with the title: Securing A Peaceful Divorce In Sudan, Daily Nation writes ‘Bashir has no choice but to lose South” and Uganda’s New vision says : “African Union must keep an eye on Sudan's referendum”

But of all the commentaries I read, I like the far-away piece from the Middle East, Al-arabiya’s Mostapha El Mouloudi who albeit briefly, covered his research analysis with a great title: ‘Sudanese need to maintain bonds’

Mostapha argues that it should be noted that the self-determination referendum in Sudan is important to settle outstanding internal issues, but it can also have regional and international repercussions.

It is a matter of days though, before we will see how things will turn in Sudan, one thing for sure is, Sudan has already witnessed the worst of wars it could. It is a country that lost over two million of its citizens in decades-long instability.

And a referendum like any other election in Africa can result a fresh civil war as issues in Sudan are so delicate and can result an endless conflict.

Much to may dismay, the international community, most critically Sudan’s neighbors like Kenya and Uganda are meddling in the affairs of the country more than it is necessary.
Sudan’s referendum will never be free and fair, if the level of interfering of these two countries is anything to go by.

Kenya takes advantage of its hosting of the Sudanese peace process. Kenya’s politician are seemingly playing a pivotal role to force the South to secede from the North, rather than waiting for a fair secession. It is possibly arguable that Kenya is arming the South to govern itself by all means, by hook or by crook. The recent controversial shipment of tanks is a clear indication.

Museveni’s Kampala has not been without blames, with reports indicating that his forces trooped towards the Sudanese border. Whatever interest Uganda is pursuing, it is expressly understandable that it is interfering with the prospect of a peaceful referendum.

In the real politics, there seems to be serious religious dichotomy, Neighbouring Christian countries are seemingly supporting the South more than the North. Although the South has realized more suffering over the years, it is not a reason enough for the international community to deviate all its attention to the South.

A smooth secession is the ultimate goal for both the North and the South, But the seemingly absence of that will greatly result bloody incursion.

The arrow will obviously hit back the ground and the resulting devastation will spare neither Kenya nor Uganda.